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Can Hillary still win?Believe it or not, she still has a chanceAaron Harber, DDN Political ColumnistTuesday, May 13, 2008 | |
Part 3 of 3:
One of the most amazing aspects of the elitist calls for Sen. Hillary Clinton to abandon her quest for the presidency is the misimpression that she trails Sen. Barack Obama by an insurmountable margin.
Actually, Clinton trails Obama by only 156 votes out of approximately 4,050 presidential delegates. This represents a gap of less than 4 percent or 52 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Clinton — not exactly a landslide.
The question then is, “If Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama evenly split the remaining primary contests, how does either one get the 2,025 delegates votes needed to secure the nomination?” Assuming she simply splits the remaining popularly elected and caucus-selected delegates evenly, there still are many ways Clinton could win the nomination.
Remaining super delegates
First, if Clinton gets four out of five of the remaining uncommitted super delegates, she wins the nomination. This percentage is unlikely but, if one more Reverend Wright-like revelation occurs, it’s entirely possible. Super delegates can change their minds and their votes numerous times.
Second, some Obama super delegates might switch to Clinton at the last minute. If just 79 out of 842 super delegates (only 9 percent) change their minds, Clinton wins.
Third, while elected delegates are supposed to support the candidate they supported, they also are committed to exercising their best judgment. They are free to cast their ballot for whomever they want. If just 79 Obama delegates out of 2,000 switch to Clinton — a shift of under 4 percent — she wins the nomination.
Florida and Michigan
Fourth, should everyone be talking about Florida and Michigan? Clinton prudently has begun this dialog in earnest as a defender of both states. With a total of 366 delegates at stake, it certainly is within the realm of possibility that some or all of the delegates will be seated and Clinton emerges with a 20- to 40-vote edge.
Even though she “won” the two states electorally in contests that did not count (and, in one case, where Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot), it is likely an initial 50-50 split of delegates will be the solution. Delegates can vote any way they want, so no one can guarantee a 50-50 split of the actual votes cast.
Given Clinton’s ferocious effort to seat the two delegations, rather than a 183-183 (50 percent-50 percent) split, a 223-143 (61 percent-39 percent) split could easily be the final result — giving Clinton an 80-vote advantage. And even that margin could be greater if Obama fights against seating the two delegations.
‘No show’ factor
Fifth, what about the “no show” factor? With almost 4,050 delegates scheduled to be at the convention, it would be easy for 3 percent or 4 percent to not make it. Given the challenges of air travel today alone, it is entirely possible those delegates who miss their flights may be more than a day or two late getting to Denver, if they can find a seat at all during a very busy travel period. In the past, bumped passengers often got a seat on the next flight out. These days, with planes often flying at capacity, some passengers now wait days to get to their destinations.
Furthermore, people have illnesses in their families, have children starting school in late August, and may face their own personal problems at this particular time. If a total of only 3 percent of the delegates fall into one of these categories, the leanings of the 120 alternates replacing them could have an impact on the outcome of the contest.
Combination
Of course, Clinton does not need just one of these scenarios to come true to win the nomination. Simply a combination of two or more of them with each outcome simply favorable to her could be enough.
For example, if she won three out of five (60 percent) of the remaining super delegates rather than 85 percent, that would add 55 votes to her total. If she succeeded in getting a net gain of just 20 Obama super delegates to switch at the convention, that would move her towards her winning majority goal.
If she were able to get just 30 elected delegates for Obama to support her (i.e., 1½ percent of his total), that, too, might be all she needs. And if 100 delegates didn’t make the convention and their split went from 55-45 Obama to 60-40 Clinton simply due to the available alternate pool (i.e., this presumes some Obama alternates would cast a vote for Clinton), again she would gain a shift of 20 votes (15 more for her and 15 fewer for Obama).
Not farfetched
This modest illustration could give Clinton well over the 2,025 votes needed to secure the nomination. And none of these scenarios is farfetched. It is their combination that makes it more than possible, albeit not likely, that she could win the nomination. My guess is the position to have these days is to serve on the DNC’s Credential Committee. What unmitigated fun!
Aaron Harber hosts “The Aaron Harber Show,” seen Tuesdays at 8 p.m. and Wednesdays at 5 p.m. on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Goo to www.HarberTV.com for more information.
| Comments: |
| Eric @ 2008-05-13 00:53:22 | Are you in the Clinton campaign? This is fantasy. |
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| Jim Richmond @ 2008-05-13 00:54:09 | From what I hear from Obma he already has 2025 delegates. Also he and his wife are thinking how to change the White House. This is the change he is talking about. He will paint the White House black and call it the Black House. |
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| Jim Richmond @ 2008-05-13 00:55:08 | From what I hear from Obma he already has 2025 delegates. Also he and his wife are thinking how to change the White House. This is the change he is talking about. He will paint the White House black and call it the Black House. |
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| Jim Richmond @ 2008-05-13 00:55:18 | From what I hear from Obma he already has 2025 delegates. Also he and his wife are thinking how to change the White House. This is the change he is talking about. He will paint the White House black and call it the Black House. |
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| michael @ 2008-05-13 00:57:31 | what are you smoking? |
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| Carib Mark @ 2008-05-13 09:05:37 | You're obviously stumping for Satan..I mean Clinton..no I mean Satan. When she ran for the Senate in NY she said it was not as a step to the White House..would an Arkansas Senator gain the attention she has? No. Just one more change of the facts and truths by Satan...damn, said it again! |
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| Nick @ 2008-05-13 12:05:46 | I hope Clinton wins -- I for one am DYING to see how Bill decides to decorate the White House Christmas tree... |
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| A Burke @ 2008-05-13 13:12:13 | You forgot to mention all of the above could go the other way.... |
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| Bob @ 2008-05-13 16:02:52 | You sir are a moron. A dumber, more one-sided analysis would be impossible to imagine.
So Clinton now needs delegate no-shows? Delegates chaning their minds? 4 out of 5 remaining super-delegates?
Hahahahahahaha
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| Walter @ 2008-05-13 16:10:21 | According to the Associated Press, Obama has 1,874 total convention delegates to Clinton’s 1,697. But if the DNC were to decide to count West Virginia 14 times, it would propel Hillary into the lead. "West Virginia must be counted 14 times", she proclaimed Tuesday.
If Clinton wins 2/3 of the 39 delegates at stake in the West Virigina primary as expected, that will give her a net gain of 13 delegates. If West Virginia were counted 14 times, then that would give her a net gain of 182 delegates, putting her into the lead by 5 total delegates. "We will take this fight all the way to the convention," a defiant Senator Clinton said. |
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| D. Babayev @ 2008-05-14 15:57:25 | Dear Aaron Harber. Your paper "Can Hillary still win?" made me to answer "sure she can".
We want to share with you our thoughts and concerns on an issue, faitfull for our nation.
The Democratic Convention is approaching and there are too many “advisers” trying to dictate how it should proceed: media, TV anchors, all kind of opponents.
Actually, the nominee of the democratic party is essentially clear now: this is a very well deserving, an intelligent person, a real, experienced statesperson with a deep knowledge of the complex problems (domestic and international) of the country, abilities and skills to tackle them and to restore the fundamentally strong economic position of the USA and its image as of true leader of the world with the happy and prosperous people.
This is the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
DearMr. Harber, you apparently listened to many of her speeches. When discussing different problems: economy, mortgage crisis, healthcare, Iraq war, education, employment and other, she is always specific, we can follow her clear and deep vision of the considered problem, specific suggestions on approaching and solving the problem.
It is not incidental that at the first stages of the election campaign, when the Democratic and Republican parties each had about 10 initial mumber candidates, the President Bush, together with the first Lady Laura Bush expressed their opinion in an interwiev with ABC, that "Mrs Clinton is a formidable candidate. She understands the pressure and difficulties of the work better than any candidate in the race. Her experience would be very helpful in the Oval Office."
Senator Hillary Clinton devotedly works in the senate and overwhelmingly supported by American voters as a presidential candidate. All organized anti-Clintonian campaign is serving the interests of GOP opponents, From the beginning of the presidential election campaign all the mainstream media, TV, radio and other carry out well orcestrated anti-clinton campaign fiercely directed against Senator Hillary Clinton, using all kind of lies, slander, aspersion trying shamelessly to distort her real image of a formidable leader, who is able to lead the American Nation to new future highs for the good of the American People and benefits of the international community. And there is no doubt, that this anti-clinton campaign is financed and organized by certain circles, which do not care about the most important interests of the USA and the American People. They pursue their own specific evil goals.
Another presidential candidate Barack Hussein Obama is absolutely unacceptable as a nominee simply being an immoral man, as practising the gay life style, not to mention having no knowledge of the complex problems of the country, abilities, skills and experience to solve them. All his campaign speeches are loud rhetorics stuffed with irresponsible, empty and baseless promises. Using such slogans as "change" and "new generation" and the purposefully orcestrated support of the mainstream media Obama managed to stupefy thousands of unscrupulous and gullible American voters and transform them into his supporters. He has no real understanding of how this promises can be realized, without any experience and knowledge of these problems. His spiritual mentor pastor Jeremiah Wright in his speeches at NAACP and national press club in Washington DC announced that the change, when "hated American cultural values will be replaced by values of Black Africa is already coming. If God intented to make Obama the president, then nothing can stop it."
The number of votes collected in caucauses does not reflect knowledge of the candidate, the abilities and other qualifications required to lead the country and to pull the country out from the difficult conditions.
Remarks made by this candidate from time to time on different issues(e.g., recent bitter remarks), which put him and the whole democratic party on an awkward and confused position once again demonstrate, that he is not capable to lead the cuntry and the people.
By the way the issue of Globe, March 6, 2008 published story GAY, SEX SCANDAL OF OBAMA EXPLODES, which presents photographs and names of Obama's corresponding gay partners. One of them, Larry Sinclair, is cited saying “Obama wants me dead for saying we are lovers”. He also witnesses about Obama smoking crack, not years ago, when being young, but rigt now, when fooling the Americans as a presidential candidate. In the next issue of the Globe Larry Sinclair talks about Obama planning to hire a hitman to kill Sinclair. And now, 5/10/08, Chicago police already investigates murder of Mr. Yuong, Obama's another gay partner. Mr. Yuong was a choir header in Jeremiah Wright's Trinity Black Church in Chicago.
Democratic Party having years of glorious history should clean itself off the dirt brought by the author of the "change", and other deceitful slogans as "new generation", which are used to deceive and stupefy thousands of unscrupulous and gullible voters, making them Obama supporters.
Meanwhile the 20 years long friendship of Obama with his openly anti-american spiritual mentor did not go away tracelessly. Obama’s election campaign now is a divisive racial black movement ( 95% of African-American voters vote for "their own black candidate")
and this is presented in TV programs as his achivement among the voters, and even more, in his speech after NC primary he warned that any criticism of his campaign will cause the division of the whole nation and such criticism cannot be allowed. He again presented himself as the best possible president for uniting the country in bypartisan basis.
Obama has a long time friendly link with an underground terrorists William Ayers and Bernardine Horn plotting bombing the government institutions of the USA and Mr. Rezko, a financial dealer, who is under probe now for violations of the financial rules.
Obama has a very fuzzy impression of state problems of the USA. As an example, he believes that his childish recollections of of time, when he was 3-5 years old, spent in an Indonesian village is a big experience in foreign policy. And he seriously tries impress gullible American voters with his this "experience".
All numerous campaign speeches of Obama consist of loud rhetorics, stuffed with baseless, irresponsible but generous empty promises and are accompanied by sound deceitful and foggy slogans as "change", "new generation", which were used to stupefy and fool thousand of unscrupulous Americans, who are now Obama supporters.
As it is now revealed by critics, about all this issues Obama says only half truth.
Please, expose the real face of Obama. This will be done anyway by the opponents in the general elections, after the nomination. And this would be big damage to the country and to the people.
Please read an article about Obama’s honesty and truthfulness, his real face on Newsweek May 5/2008 issue: Obama for more than 20 years is a member of Trinity Church, attending sermons. Constantly manoeuvres depending on situations.
Obama is a man not of strong and independent will. E.g., he easily influenced by his mentor Jeremiah Wright, black Church as a whole.
It is now obvious that Obama is not fit to be a USA senator, not to mention the next president of the country. He must be expelled from the Senate and banned from running as a one of the democratic presidential candidates.
This is required by the interests of the American People and the Nation and by the USA laws.
Obama regularly misinforms voters and says half truthes. Recently Obama announced that he disagreed with his former mentor about some black church issues, calling black community to fight to replace American cultural volues with values of black Africa. But it is simply a subterfuge, just another lie to gullible American voters.
I feel necessary to tell you the utterly disturbing information: several days ago aTV channel anoounced, that superdelegate votes now sell for $20million per vote. In view of large number of superdelegates switching recently to Obama this TV information makes necessary investigation of every case of switching superdelegates and also makes doubtful number of votes as if earned by Obama in small state caucouses? Looks likes all these are paid for by Obama money. Such an investigation is extremely urgent and necessary for maintaining the purity and lawfulness of the current presidential election procedure in the USA.
Fortunately there is another presidential candidate of wide knowleadge, abilities and experience and strengths to solve the difficult problems of our country. This is Senator Hillary Clinton.
With sincere, most warmest regards
Professor
D. Babayev
|
| Flag this comment as Inappropriate / Spam |
| D. Babayev @ 2008-05-14 16:02:20 | Dear Aaron Harber. Your paper "Can Hillary still win?" made me to answer "sure she can".
We want to share with you our thoughts and concerns on an issue, faitfull for our nation.
The Democratic Convention is approaching and there are too many “advisers” trying to dictate how it should proceed: media, TV anchors, all kind of opponents.
Actually, the nominee of the democratic party is essentially clear now: this is a very well deserving, an intelligent person, a real, experienced statesperson with a deep knowledge of the complex problems (domestic and international) of the country, abilities and skills to tackle them and to restore the fundamentally strong economic position of the USA and its image as of true leader of the world with the happy and prosperous people.
This is the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
DearMr. Harber, you apparently listened to many of her speeches. When discussing different problems: economy, mortgage crisis, healthcare, Iraq war, education, employment and other, she is always specific, we can follow her clear and deep vision of the considered problem, specific suggestions on approaching and solving the problem.
It is not incidental that at the first stages of the election campaign, when the Democratic and Republican parties each had about 10 initial mumber candidates, the President Bush, together with the first Lady Laura Bush expressed their opinion in an interwiev with ABC, that "Mrs Clinton is a formidable candidate. She understands the pressure and difficulties of the work better than any candidate in the race. Her experience would be very helpful in the Oval Office."
Senator Hillary Clinton devotedly works in the senate and overwhelmingly supported by American voters as a presidential candidate. All organized anti-Clintonian campaign is serving the interests of GOP opponents, From the beginning of the presidential election campaign all the mainstream media, TV, radio and other carry out well orcestrated anti-clinton campaign fiercely directed against Senator Hillary Clinton, using all kind of lies, slander, aspersion trying shamelessly to distort her real image of a formidable leader, who is able to lead the American Nation to new future highs for the good of the American People and benefits of the international community. And there is no doubt, that this anti-clinton campaign is financed and organized by certain circles, which do not care about the most important interests of the USA and the American People. They pursue their own specific evil goals.
Another presidential candidate Barack Hussein Obama is absolutely unacceptable as a nominee simply being an immoral man, as practising the gay life style, not to mention having no knowledge of the complex problems of the country, abilities, skills and experience to solve them. All his campaign speeches are loud rhetorics stuffed with irresponsible, empty and baseless promises. Using such slogans as "change" and "new generation" and the purposefully orcestrated support of the mainstream media Obama managed to stupefy thousands of unscrupulous and gullible American voters and transform them into his supporters. He has no real understanding of how this promises can be realized, without any experience and knowledge of these problems. His spiritual mentor pastor Jeremiah Wright in his speeches at NAACP and national press club in Washington DC announced that the change, when "hated American cultural values will be replaced by values of Black Africa is already coming. If God intented to make Obama the president, then nothing can stop it."
The number of votes collected in caucauses does not reflect knowledge of the candidate, the abilities and other qualifications required to lead the country and to pull the country out from the difficult conditions.
Remarks made by this candidate from time to time on different issues(e.g., recent bitter remarks), which put him and the whole democratic party on an awkward and confused position once again demonstrate, that he is not capable to lead the cuntry and the people.
By the way the issue of Globe, March 6, 2008 published story GAY, SEX SCANDAL OF OBAMA EXPLODES, which presents photographs and names of Obama's corresponding gay partners. One of them, Larry Sinclair, is cited saying “Obama wants me dead for saying we are lovers”. He also witnesses about Obama smoking crack, not years ago, when being young, but rigt now, when fooling the Americans as a presidential candidate. In the next issue of the Globe Larry Sinclair talks about Obama planning to hire a hitman to kill Sinclair. And now, 5/10/08, Chicago police already investigates murder of Mr. Yuong, Obama's another gay partner. Mr. Yuong was a choir header in Jeremiah Wright's Trinity Black Church in Chicago.
Democratic Party having years of glorious history should clean itself off the dirt brought by the author of the "change", and other deceitful slogans as "new generation", which are used to deceive and stupefy thousands of unscrupulous and gullible voters, making them Obama supporters.
Meanwhile the 20 years long friendship of Obama with his openly anti-american spiritual mentor did not go away tracelessly. Obama’s election campaign now is a divisive racial black movement ( 95% of African-American voters vote for "their own black candidate")
and this is presented in TV programs as his achivement among the voters, and even more, in his speech after NC primary he warned that any criticism of his campaign will cause the division of the whole nation and such criticism cannot be allowed. He again presented himself as the best possible president for uniting the country in bypartisan basis.
Obama has a long time friendly link with an underground terrorists William Ayers and Bernardine Horn plotting bombing the government institutions of the USA and Mr. Rezko, a financial dealer, who is under probe now for violations of the financial rules.
Obama has a very fuzzy impression of state problems of the USA. As an example, he believes that his childish recollections of of time, when he was 3-5 years old, spent in an Indonesian village is a big experience in foreign policy. And he seriously tries impress gullible American voters with his this "experience".
All numerous campaign speeches of Obama consist of loud rhetorics, stuffed with baseless, irresponsible but generous empty promises and are accompanied by sound deceitful and foggy slogans as "change", "new generation", which were used to stupefy and fool thousand of unscrupulous Americans, who are now Obama supporters.
As it is now revealed by critics, about all this issues Obama says only half truth.
Please, expose the real face of Obama. This will be done anyway by the opponents in the general elections, after the nomination. And this would be big damage to the country and to the people.
Please read an article about Obama’s honesty and truthfulness, his real face on Newsweek May 5/2008 issue: Obama for more than 20 years is a member of Trinity Church, attending sermons. Constantly manoeuvres depending on situations.
Obama is a man not of strong and independent will. E.g., he easily influenced by his mentor Jeremiah Wright, black Church as a whole.
It is now obvious that Obama is not fit to be a USA senator, not to mention the next president of the country. He must be expelled from the Senate and banned from running as a one of the democratic presidential candidates.
This is required by the interests of the American People and the Nation and by the USA laws.
Obama regularly misinforms voters and says half truthes. Recently Obama announced that he disagreed with his former mentor about some black church issues, calling black community to fight to replace American cultural volues with values of black Africa. But it is simply a subterfuge, just another lie to gullible American voters.
I feel necessary to tell you the utterly disturbing information: several days ago aTV channel anoounced, that superdelegate votes now sell for $20million per vote. In view of large number of superdelegates switching recently to Obama this TV information makes necessary investigation of every case of switching superdelegates and also makes doubtful number of votes as if earned by Obama in small state caucouses? Looks likes all these are paid for by Obama money. Such an investigation is extremely urgent and necessary for maintaining the purity and lawfulness of the current presidential election procedure in the USA.
Fortunately there is another presidential candidate of wide knowleadge, abilities and experience and strengths to solve the difficult problems of our country. This is Senator Hillary Clinton.
With sincere, most warmest regards
Professor
D. Babayev
|
| Flag this comment as Inappropriate / Spam |
| American (in color) @ 2008-05-15 06:35:07 | Hillary Clinton has already lost the nomination mathematically and should have dropped out after North Carolina and Indiana. She has been nothing but a divisive force in the Democratic Party. And realistically, she can only win then nomination if people miss planes, or superdelegates somehow go against what their constituents want. Hillary is dishonest, calculating and conniving and should not be allowed anywhere near the presidency.
This you can count on: If Hillary becomes the nominee under dubious circumstances (there are no other avenues she can take), she INSTANTLY becomes unlelectable. The blacks and the new young white voters that Obama has mobilized will NOT vote for her despite her claims. I dont think they will vote for McCain either, they will simply not vote at all. |
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