• Town Talk

Part 3 of 3:

One of the most amazing aspects of the elitist calls for Sen. Hillary Clinton to abandon her quest for the presidency is the misimpression that she trails Sen. Barack Obama by an insurmountable margin.

Actually, Clinton trails Obama by only 156 votes out of approximately 4,050 presidential delegates. This represents a gap of less than 4 percent or 52 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Clinton — not exactly a landslide.

The question then is, “If Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama evenly split the remaining primary contests, how does either one get the 2,025 delegates votes needed to secure the nomination?” Assuming she simply splits the remaining popularly elected and caucus-selected delegates evenly, there still are many ways Clinton could win the nomination.

Remaining super delegates

First, if Clinton gets four out of five of the remaining uncommitted super delegates, she wins the nomination. This percentage is unlikely but, if one more Reverend Wright-like revelation occurs, it’s entirely possible. Super delegates can change their minds and their votes numerous times.

Second, some Obama super delegates might switch to Clinton at the last minute. If just 79 out of 842 super delegates (only 9 percent) change their minds, Clinton wins.

Third, while elected delegates are supposed to support the candidate they supported, they also are committed to exercising their best judgment. They are free to cast their ballot for whomever they want. If just 79 Obama delegates out of 2,000 switch to Clinton — a shift of under 4 percent — she wins the nomination.

Florida and Michigan

Fourth, should everyone be talking about Florida and Michigan? Clinton prudently has begun this dialog in earnest as a defender of both states. With a total of 366 delegates at stake, it certainly is within the realm of possibility that some or all of the delegates will be seated and Clinton emerges with a 20- to 40-vote edge. 

Even though she “won” the two states electorally in contests that did not count (and, in one case, where Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot), it is likely an initial 50-50 split of delegates will be the solution. Delegates can vote any way they want, so no one can guarantee a 50-50 split of the actual votes cast.

Given Clinton’s ferocious effort to seat the two delegations, rather than a 183-183 (50 percent-50 percent) split, a 223-143 (61 percent-39 percent) split could easily be the final result — giving Clinton an 80-vote advantage. And even that margin could be greater if Obama fights against seating the two delegations.

‘No show’ factor

Fifth, what about the “no show” factor? With almost 4,050 delegates scheduled to be at the convention, it would be easy for 3 percent or 4 percent to not make it. Given the challenges of air travel today alone, it is entirely possible those delegates who miss their flights may be more than a day or two late getting to Denver, if they can find a seat at all during a very busy travel period. In the past, bumped passengers often got a seat on the next flight out. These days, with planes often flying at capacity, some passengers now wait days to get to their destinations.

Furthermore, people have illnesses in their families, have children starting school in late August, and may face their own personal problems at this particular time. If a total of only 3 percent of the delegates fall into one of these categories, the leanings of the 120 alternates replacing them could have an impact on the outcome of the contest.

Combination

Of course, Clinton does not need just one of these scenarios to come true to win the nomination. Simply a combination of two or more of them with each outcome simply favorable to her could be enough.

For example, if she won three out of five (60 percent) of the remaining super delegates rather than 85 percent, that would add 55 votes to her total. If she succeeded in getting a net gain of just 20 Obama super delegates to switch at the convention, that would move her towards her winning majority goal. 

If she were able to get just 30 elected delegates for Obama to support her (i.e., 1½ percent of his total), that, too, might be all she needs. And if 100 delegates didn’t make the convention and their split went from 55-45 Obama to 60-40 Clinton simply due to the available alternate pool (i.e., this presumes some Obama alternates would cast a vote for Clinton), again she would gain a shift of 20 votes (15 more for her and 15 fewer for Obama).

Not farfetched

This modest illustration could give Clinton well over the 2,025 votes needed to secure the nomination. And none of these scenarios is farfetched. It is their combination that makes it more than possible, albeit not likely, that she could win the nomination. My guess is the position to have these days is to serve on the DNC’s Credential Committee. What unmitigated fun!

Aaron Harber hosts “The Aaron Harber Show,” seen Tuesdays at 8 p.m. and Wednesdays at 5 p.m. on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Goo to www.HarberTV.com for more information.

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